Singapore Real Estate Market Review March 2008

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Synopsis of the Market Report

 

The global situation is far from certain. As I was preparing this Quarter Review for publication, the Straits Times Index (STI)  – the barometer of Singapore’s stock market performance – dropped 80-over points in a day in what appeared to be the beginning of another massive correction phase.  Unless and until the US economy stops the blood-letting,  energy prices goes back to sanity level, and prices of foodstuff come off from the shelf and back to floor level again, property investors will continue to adopt the ‘safety first’ strategy with compulsion.

In this Quarter Review, I have identified the following topics for some detailed analysis and they include:

• The dismal showing of new launch/showroom sales – my advice to agents is to stay away from there unless you have five novels to finish from now to end of the year or you are bored with your marriage life. [ Statistics are at table 3 ]
  
   

• Landed property performance in the first quarter where Districts 10 and 15 were examined in detail in the following categories – house types [from bungalow to terrace house], transaction figures of each house type, price range and median prices. Landed property is definitely an area of potential and steady growth, even though superficially it appears to be dragged down by the same horror stories in the larger market. However, whether or not a landed property is sellable or not still depends on the same fundamental factors such as location, frontage, orientation etc. Agents are advised to stay close to basics real estate investment 101.        [ Statistics are at table 6 ]
  
   

• Collective sale performance is analysed with the perspective to forecast the supply side situation. As collective sale involves huge funds, the availability of war chest or sudden withdrawal of resources may serve as a telltale sign of things to come.                             [ Analysis on the Kuwaiti episode ]
  
   

• Foreign interest in Singapore property market remains comparatively strong though the absolute number of transactions had declined. [ Statistics are at table 14 ]
  
   

• Government land sale (GLS) programme appears to be on the wane as the number of bidders has significantly reduced for land parcels in outlaying areas and the bid prices tend to be more conservative in general in the first three months.
  

• The HDB market remains upbeat with sellers asking for ‘future prices’ that reflect optimism of the larger economy and Singapore’s success story. It appears that the heartlanders are the jolly lot and they are generally expecting greater things to endow Singapore. Interest on larger flats remains strong and it shows that confidence level is high among HDB upgraders.

• Last but not least, this Quarter Review contains a case study to ascertain the ‘Most Sellable Projects’ in the Central Core Region (CCR). It uncovers that many District 9 projects attracted only single digit transactions over the past six months. The surprised outcome of the case study is that the lists of statistics can now act as a ‘Sellability Checklist’ for agents who have listings in CCR. As such, more projects will be included in the next report. So, stay tuned.
   

Other things that may occupy real estate agents for some months would be the introduction of a new HDB Resale Checklist, purportedly to ensure the professional standards of real estate agents. The details are in Annex A. Another new initiative by HDB was the introduction of a higher-tier Single Housing Grant to reward filial piety. See details in Annex B. With HDB resale transactions gaining on, real estate agents specialising in HDB resale will have more busy days ahead.

 

(A) Global Situation and the Larger Market

 

(A.1) The worst is not over for US housing woes

 

Industry data released on 6 March 2008 showed that January’s pending home sales in the United States were at the second-lowest reading since 2001.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes held at 85.9, the same reading as December and just short of a revised record low of 85.8 in August 2007, when the sub-prime mortgage crisis first reared its ugly head.

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association said that US home foreclosures and the rate of homes entering the foreclosure process rose to record highs in the fourth quarter led by increasing personal insolvencies. According to NAR’s delinquency and foreclosure survey, the rate of failing loans swelled across most mortgage types but was led by a growing wave of sub-prime borrowers unable to make payments.

 

(A.2) Home ownership rates fell as buyers are waiting for the crisis to end

 

Equity Residential, one of the largest US apartment landlords noticed that more people are opting to remain in rental apartments while they wait out the current housing slump. In fact, fewer tenants are moving out of its apartments. The departure rate was 63.3%, lower than the 64.9% recorded in 2006.

And population projections by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggest hundreds of thousands of young Americans are sitting out the housing market entirely - neither buying nor renting.

Recent reports show that the average price of an existing single-family home in US metropolitan areas fell 6% in the fourth quarter, while foreclosure rates in the top 100 metropolitan areas soared 78% last year. Indeed, home ownership rates have fallen to 67.8% of households at the end of last year from 69.2% in 2004.

 

(A.3) US commercial real estate value will also be affected

 

JP Morgan analysts expect the US commercial real estate values to fall by 20% from the peak of 2007 price height and losses to reach about US$120 billion, or 4% (as compared to the 15% in housing loans) of the US$3.2 trillion outstanding commercial real estate loans.

Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) would account for about US$30 billion of the losses and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) would account for about US$40 billion of the losses.

CMBS, including CDOs, accounted for 23.6% of lending at the end of the third quarter of 2007. Problems in the CMBS market will become apparent between 2010 and 2012 when many five-year mortgages mature.

This would lead the commercial property market into a more gradual decline than the housing market, which has been slammed by losses related to sub-prime mortgages. Those losses are expected to reach US$200 billion, or 15% of the US$1.25 trillion of outstanding loans.

 

Like they said during the Vietnam War: “the situation will get worse before it gets better”. The haemorrhage suffered by major global financial institutions has not stopped and the regular blood transfusion is costing the whole world dearly. (The fact that Government of Singapore Investment Corporation GIC is currently in talk with UBS for GIC to inject more funds to help the ailing global financier speaks volume for the crisis portion) The rapid devaluation of the US dollars had driven prices of all major commodities skyward and the troubles are getting closer to home each day with the regional countries surrounding Singapore being clobbered with soaring food prices. The original crisis in the West might take on a new dimension in Asia, that is, security troubles resulting from acute food shortage. There is no guarantee that the downward spiral would not exacerbate the ongoing problems and plunge the whole world into a sudden and sharp recession. I better be wrong!

 

(B) Performance of Private Property Segment

 

(B.1) Private home prices up but at slower rate and pathetic volume

 

The URA has announced the flash estimate of the real estate market performance in the first quarter of 2008. The advanced price index for private homes in Singapore rose a meek 4.2% over the preceding quarter – 2.6% lower than the 6.8% quarter-on-quarter rise registered in the final quarter of 2007. In other words, price growth has slowed down for the first quarter of 2008. As for the three individual geographical regions, the price growth was as follows:

 

Table [1] – Price growth in the first quarter of 2008 – by regions

 

Regions	Price growth of non-landed private homes Q-on-Q
Core Central Region (CCR)	4.4% (previous quarter growth 7.5%)
Rest of Central Region (RCR)	3.9% (previous quarter growth 7.7%)
Outside Central Region (OCR)	4.8% (previous quarter growth 7.0%)

About 64,900 private residential units are in the pipeline, of which about 56,100 new private housing units are expected to be completed between 2008 and 2011. Out of the 56,100 new homes, about 38,300 units or 59% have not been sold by developers yet. This may impact the price if demand remains weak over the next few months.

 

(B.2) Performance of primary home sale in February and March 2008

 

Only 188 new home units were sold in February 2008 and 319 units in March 2008. The total new home sale figure for the first quarter was 791 units – lower than the 894 units sold in the fourth quarter of 1997 when the Asian currency crisis reached its height.  In other words, the first quarter primary home sale figure had plunged to a crisis proportion. Here are the details:

 

Table [2] – New homes launched and Sold in the February 2008 – by regions

 

Regions	No. of units sold in February	No. of units launched in February 2008
Core Central Region (CCR)	27	32
Rest of Central Region (RCR)	47	107
Outside Central Region (OCR)	45	179
Total	119 (37.42%)	318

Another 69 new home units were sold in other projects launched earlier, boosting the total number of new transactions to 188. Below shows the detailed breakdown of the units sold in March 2008.

 

Table [2A] – New homes launched and Sold in the March 2008 – by regions

 

Regions	No. of units sold in March	No. of units launched in March 2008
Core Central Region (CCR)	13	108
Rest of Central Region (RCR)	57	136
Outside Central Region (OCR)	73	394
Total	143 (22.41%)	635

Besides those units sold at the new projects launched in March 2008, 176 other new units were sold in projects that had been launched earlier, bringing the total new home sale in March 2008 to 319.

• High unsold inventory

While the aggregate sale figure in March 2008 may be higher at 319 (143 units from projects launched in March and 176 units from projects launched earlier), it is far cry from the unsold inventory. For example, in February 2008, 119 units were sold but 199 remained unsold after being launched; and in March 2008, 143 units were sold but 492 units remained unsold after being launched that month. 

• Longer marketing time

As the number of unsold units mounts, the salespersons at the show-flats have to endure longer waiting time; while buyers take their time to ‘pick and choose’ the best ‘discount package’ that the developers are showering them with.

 

Table [3] Performance of Primary Projects launched in February 2008 in Central Core Region (CCR)

 

Project Name	Total Units	Units Launch so far	Units Launch in Feb	Units Sold in Feb	Median Price (psf)	Lowest Price (psf)	Highest Price (psf)
Cliveden at Grange	110	100	1	1	3,914	3,914	3,914
Martin Place Residences	302	50	20	11	1,723	1,641	1,997
Mount Sophia Suites	50	16	1	5	1,709	1,647	1,726
Scotts Square	338	228	2	2	3,649	3,641	3,656
The Ritz-Carlton Residences	58	6	1	1	4,140	4,140	4,140
Wilkie Studio	40	25	6	2	1,724	1,723	1,726
Mount Sophia Suites	50	16	1	5	1,709	1,647	1,726
Total			32	27

 

Table [3A] Performance of Primary Projects launched in March 2008 in Central Core Region (CCR)

 

Project Name	Total Units	Units Launch so far	Units Launch in March	Units Sold in March	Median Price (psf)	Lowest Price (psf)	Highest Price (psf)
8 Rodyk	50	48	50	2	1,800	1,750	1,850
Mount Sophia Suites	50	1	4	3	1,621	1,617	1,784
Scotts Square	338	0	5	5	3,868	3,621	4,612
Shelford Suites	77	13	15	2	1,887	1,869	1,905
The Tresor	62	33	34	1	1,646	1,646	1,646
Total			108	13

Note:  Out of the 108 units launched, only 13 units or 12.03% were sold.

 

Table [4] Performance of Primary Projects launched in February 2008 Rest of Core Region (RCR)

 

Project Name	Total Units	Units Launch so far	Units Launch in Feb	Units Sold in Feb	Median Price (psf)	Lowest Price (psf)	Highest Price (psf)
Aalto	196	196	35	2	2,619	2,336	2,902
Cosmo	45	45	45	41	1,098	1,048	1,152
The Adara	16	16	16	2	1,106	1,038	1,173
Tropics @ Haigsville	11	11	11	2	874	858	890
Total			107	47

 

Table [4A] Performance of Primary Projects launched in March 2008 Rest of Core Region (RCR)

 

Project Name	Total Units	Units Launch so far	Units Launch in March	Units Sold in March	Median Price (psf)	Lowest Price (psf)	Highest Price (psf)
St Michael Regency	49	49	49	0	-	-	-
Suites @ Owen	20	0	20	20	1,052	900	1,243
Sunflower Regency	14	13	14	1	537	537	537
The Verve	106	17	53	36	1,187	969	1,298
Total			136	57

Note: out of the 136 new units launched in RCR in March 2008, only 57 or 41.91% were sold. However, 31 new homes were sold at projects which were launched earlier, bringing the total sale of new homes at RCR to 88.

 

Table [5] Performance of Primary Projects launched in February 2008 Outside Core Region (OCR)

 

Project Name	Total Units	Units Launch so far	Units Launch in Feb	Units Sold in Feb	Median Price (psf)	Lowest Price (psf)	Highest Price (psf)
Blu Coral	79	45	45	9	872	846	905
East Coast Residences	59	34	31	2	1,214	1,185	1,244
Harmony @ 1A	12	12	12	5	902	858	1,059
Inova 100	9	9	9	1	890	890	890
Residential apartments	35	35	35	2	825	805	844
The Azzuro	15	15	15	0	-	-	-
Waterfront Waves	405	180	32	26	808	694	920
Total			179	45

Note: Only 45 units or 25% of the 179 units launched found buyers.

 

Table [5A] Performance of Primary Projects launched in March 2008 Outside Core Region (OCR)

 

Project Name	Total Units	Units Launch so far	Units Launch in March	Units Sold in March	Median Price (psf)	Lowest Price (psf)	Highest Price (psf)
Blu Coral	79	20	11	28	802	520	909
D'Casita	39	32	39	7	712	711	862
Lange 28	5	4	5	1	611	611	611
The Ambrosia	39	14	39	25	915	800	1,071
The Florentine	34	32	34	2	648	648	648
The Quartz	625	276	265	9	742	485	796
The Top Residence	13	0	1	1	582	582	582
Total			394	73

Though the number of new home units sold in OCR in March 2008 was the highest, the number of units launched was much higher at 394 units. In terms of percentage, the sale only 18.52% (lower than the 25% in the previous month) of the total units launched in March was sold.

 

(B.3) Residential rental growth to ease later part of the year

 

The constraint in demand-supply of residential properties may push residential rents up by 5% to 15% this year until higher supply of new units materialises from late 2008 onwards. This is against a backdrop of a robust rental growth of 40% year-on-year in 2007.

In other words, while demand to rent residential properties may continue to be strong, the rent amount may not increase by much due to supply of ready units.

Resistance from tenants and companies to higher rents has been evident recently with landlords taking longer time to find tenants. Moreover, housing allowances for many foreign tenants have been capped and as such the frenzy seen last year in the rental market is unlikely to repeat itself.

About 8,400 new private homes will be completed this year. But the number will expand dramatically in the three years from 2009 to 2011, with an estimated 16,000 to 17,000 units completed each year.

 

(B.4) Landed property transactions went down but prices stay firm

 

As of last year, there were only 650 units of new landed homes released into the primary market. This is the prime reason why despite all the quietness in the private resale market, landed homes are still selling well and sale prices generally held firm.

Another important reason is because most landed home buyers are owner-occupiers. Below shows the detail transaction records of landed property in the first quarter of the year.

There were 474 landed property transactions between Jan 2008 and March 2008. Out of which 57 were bungalows; 121 semi-detached houses; and 296 Terrace houses.

 

Table [6] Performance of Secondary Landed home sale in 1st Quarter of 2008

 

Month	Detached	Semi-detached	Terrace houses	Total Sale
January	30	57	126	213
February	17	39	92	148
March	10	25	78	113
Q1 2008 Total	57	121	296	474
Q4 2007 Total	115	210	589	914

 

Source of data: URA website

 

Compared with the 4th quarter of 2007, there was a 48% drop in the landed property transaction in the first quarter of 2008 over the last quarter. Buyer’s sentiments have definitely been dented by the lingering global financial market worries. However, a closer look at the transacted prices and median prices show that the underlying demands are still strong, pending a clearer picture of the market situation.

 

Analysis of Detached houses transactions in Q1

 

Table [7] Across the whole island – Detached house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Detached houses Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	30	$850k	$13.25m	$3.81m	$141	$1,193	$576
February	17	$2.11m	$18.0m	$6.6m	$390	$1,194	$646
March	10	$2.28m	$19.7m	$3.3m	$407	$1,190	$650

From the above table, it is not difficult to see that the median psf land price for detached houses [across the whole island] actually rose despite the thinner sale volume recently. It could mean that underlying demand is still strong amidst strong economic fundamentals. The demand/supply situation continues to favours landed property sellers.

 

Table [8] District 10 - Detached house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Detached houses Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	7	$3.7m	$13.25m	$7.8m	$714	$1,193	$1,011
February	4	$5.2m	$18.0m	$13.1m	$774	$1,120	$998
March	1	$19.7m	$19.7m	-	$743	$743	-

Though the detached house transactions in District 10 have gradually declined over the last three months, the sale prices are holding up well. Unit land prices are likewise stable. Let’s look at detached houses in District 15 which is the second most popular location for home buyers.

 

Table [9] District 15 - Detached house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Detached houses Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	7	$1.8m	$6.2m	$3.8m	$386	$1,168	$618
February	3	$3.65m	$9.3m	$6.1m	$576	$844	$665
March	1	$2.8m	$2.8m	-	$407	$407	-

It’s the same story over at District 15 with the steady price trend and reduced sale volume.

 

Table [10] Across the whole island –  Semi-detached house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Semi-D Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	57	$700k	$6.7m	$1.97m	$176	$1,434	$650
February	39	$1.0m	$6.25m	$2.18m	$233	$1,324	$631
March	25	$1.48m	$7.11m	$2.25m	$302	$1,323	$586

For semi-detached houses, the median sale price has inched up throughout the island from $1.97m to $2.25m, though the median unit land price has dropped from $650 psf to $586 psf. This could be due to more semi-detached house transactions in Districts 10 and 15 (five houses in each district) and more transactions involving houses above 3,500 sq ft (16 of them) and fewer smaller semi-detached houses. [Larger land size tends to produce a lower unit land price].

 

Table [11] District 10 – Semi-detached house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Semi-D Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	7	$2.65m	$6.70m	$4.35m	$844	$1,422	$1,151
February	6	$2.80m	$6.25m	$4.20m	$858	$1,229	$1,057
March	5	$2.25m	$7.11m	$4.16m	$586	$1,323	$1,088

The number of transactions of semi-detached houses declined over the first three months of the year. However, in general, prices remained strong with the median prices hovering above $4 million a house and median land price at above $1,000 psf.

Table [12] District 15 – Semi-detached house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Semi-D Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	7	$1.78m	$3.12m	$1.78m	$682	$1,117	$1,117
February	1	$3.30m	$3.30m	-	$682	$682	-
March	5	$2.18m	$4.30m	$3.30m	$707	$996	$903

Likewise, the price trend in District 15 mirrors that of District 10.

 

Table [13] Across the whole island –  Terrace house sale price analysis

 

Q1	Terrace house Sold	Price			Unit price (psf)
		Lowest	Highest	Median	Lowest	Highest	Median
January	126	$130k	$5.10m	$1.37m	$152	$1,993	$669
February	92	$145k	$3.00m	$1.40m	$170	$1,227	$684
March	79	$700k	$6.41m	$1.35m	$409	$2,906	$704

The price trend for terrace houses across the island is consistent with those of detached houses and semi-detached houses. While the transaction volume has declined over the three months, the prices remain stable with median prices hovering above $1.3m for a terrace house and median land price progressing from $669 psf to $704 psf.

“God doesn’t make land anymore”, so said Lex Luthor, superman’s nemesis played by actor Kevin Spacey in Superman Returns. In Singapore, the supply of land is finite; and in the next five year, there will only be around 3,100 new landed homes coming on stream. With global warming and the rising of the sea-level, Singapore will become smaller in size with more coastal areas covered with higher tidal waters. There will be only around 72,000 landed properties by 2011. This is definitely a high growth area in terms of price; and listing agents can expect buying agents to show more respect while requesting the privilege of co-broking.

 

(C) Collective Sale Activities

 

(C.1) Reality check signals beginning of sliding price trend for all

 

The collective sale market has been so quiet in the first quarter that one could hear a pin drop. Only one en bloc sale project was sold and it was an obscured mixed development comprising nine apartments and nine shops off Holland Road. A jog in the memory would bring us back to the same period last year where the en bloc sale market was frantic with 25 transactions and prices were moving with the vertigo sensation of the maiden test flight of Airbus A380.

However, when it comes to the delivery of the final product, the en bloc market also resembled the Airbus episode – not all the A380 planes were delivered on time and the scheduled handing-over was repeatedly frustrated for one reason or another.

Coincidentally, a number of en bloc sale projects were either rejected by the authorities or repudiated by the buyer in the end. In fact, the Strata Titles Board (STB) cancelled the en bloc sale of Finland Garden in Siglap area and then Regent Gardens in West Coast in quick succession in January 2008. In late March 2008, the Supreme Court upheld the STB’s early rejection of the en bloc sale of Airview Towers in River Valley area.

It would not be too far-fetched to surmise that the authorities had been keeping a close watch on the details of collective sale applications and was ready to scrutinise every application and, if need be, give the decisive chop in anticipation of a possible ‘next wave’ of en bloc sale projects more desperate to meet deadlines (and therefore more vulnerable to hasty decisions) before their respective Collective Sale Agreement (CSA) lapses under the new collective sale law.
 

 

(C.2) Aspiring developer showed sign of financial stress after buying spree last year

 

Besides the above, there is another appalling dimension to the en bloc sale scene – the foreign funds promised to the buyers may not materialise after all. In the context of foreign funds’ perception of the high-end residential market in Singapore, the island city’s upside potential dwarfs in comparison with Shanghai, Mumbai and even Ho Chi Min city as the former are all starting from a very low base and are relatively young markets with very different demography. This perspective is not unrelated to the Kuwaiti episode mentioned earlier.

At least one aspiring developer, Bravo Building Construction, which went on a buying spree in the en bloc sale market last year armed with promises of foreign money, had on 1 April 2008 rescinded a $162.8 million collective sale of Makeway View in the Newton area, and eight days later, rescinded the en bloc purchase of District 10 Tulip Garden, losing $25 million in deposit. However, the fledgling developer claimed that it would honour the en bloc deal of Pender Court, off Pasir Panjang Road which it purchased at $80million.

 

(C.3) Implications on funding – the ‘runaway bride’ starring Kuwait (instead of Juliet Roberts)

 

In the same context of the ‘runaway bride’, the frustrations seen in the en bloc scene cannot be disassociated with the recent lapsing of Option by a Kuwaiti fund company to purchase 97 units of freehold Goodwood Residence in Singapore. In both cases, the promised marriage did not materialise despite the dowries being paid.

The implications of the ‘no-show’ by the cash-rich Middle Eastern fund may be far reaching. First of all, it may open the floodgate for more such ‘walk outs’; and secondly it serves as a cold blanket for all home sellers who are still fantasising about an IR boom – a perceived wisdom that may turn out to be like an overcooked steak – hard to swallow but still get everybody saying ‘well done’ before the bad dish (or bad deed) is served. 

It’s now time for property sellers to align their asking prices to the market equilibrium, because as far as foreign investors are concerned, property prices may have reached an altitude that requires breathing apparatus and a huge courage or stupidity to venture further.

With 8,400 new condo units expected to receive their TOP this year and the increasing number of unsold new home units (statistics from page 5 to 7), a supply glut will soon become apparent.  What investors should look out for is fundamental value of the real estate and not the supposed attractiveness of historic low interest rates.

The culmination of the events (more stringent scrutiny by the authorities and withdrawal of funds from foreign partners) in the en bloc sale market may have a negative impact on the general resale market because more such en bloc projects may be willing to lower their asking prices or risk two equally grave consequences: (1) going back to the drawing board and face the tedious and dreadful en bloc sale process all over again; or (2) wait for another five to six year before another en bloc craze sweeps in. The floodgate is being held precariously for the time being.

 

(D) Foreign Interest in Singapore Real Estate

 

The study seeks to ascertain whether there are any changes in foreign interest on the Singapore property market. The findings are inconclusive due to very low transactions in the first quarter. However, the percentage seems to suggest that foreign investors are still ‘very keen’ on sharing a slice of Singapore’s success stories. With the various ‘prestige projects’ such as the Integrated Resorts, the F1 event, Youth Olympic, the Singapore real estate scene is not without glamour and glitter to attract a continuous inflow of funds into the global city. However, how much more can the ‘glamour factor’ contribute to serious financial investments such as the real estate remains to be seen.

At the home front, more foreigners here opted to owning instead of renting homes in Singapore, if the statistics for 2007 is anything to go by.

Foreigners bought a record 6,536 non-landed homes from the secondary market in 2007 - the largest number since 1995 and it accounted for more than 50% of the secondary market transactions in 2007. The number includes the 6,000 en bloc sale units.

In terms of percentage, purchases by foreigners on the secondary market increased by 105% in transaction volume compared to 2006.

For new homes, the percentage of foreigners buying non-landed property was lower at 25.4%, or 2,314 transactions out of a total of 9,089. This shows that the foreigners are buying for immediate occupation.

In terms of buyer’s profile, Indonesians remain the top foreign buyers in Singapore, taking up the lion’s share of 23% of the 20,000-old transactions featuring foreign buyers. Malaysians came in a close second with 17% of all foreigners in 2007. The other nationalities ranked in as follows: Indians (12%), British (8%), PRC Chinese (7%) and Koreans (7%).

Below shows a comparative study done on foreign ownership of condominiums and apartment between Q1 2007 and Q1 2008

 

Table [14] Comparative sales figures between Q1 2007 and Q1 2008 in selected districts

 

District	Q1 2008 Sale volume	Foreigner	% of foreigner to Total	Q1 2007 Sale volume	Foreigner	% of foreigner to Total
01	51	7	13.72%	406	41	10.09%
02	61	23	37.70%	163	8	5.0%
03	74	18	24.32%	224	39	17.41%
04	68	19	27.94%	147	27	18.36%
05	168	26	15.48%	452	32	7.0%

 

09	191	55	28.79%	879	222	25.25%
10	212	51	24.05%	1,093	219	20.03%
11	130	31	23.84%	627	101	16.10%

 

15	370	52	14.05%	1,072	115	10.72%
16	191	21	10.99%	370	49	13.24%

 

19	160	18	11.25%	325	10	3.0%
20	66	4	6.06%	122	5	4%
21	127	23	18.11%	287	37	12.89%
23	142	15	10.56%	306	13	4.24%

 

Table [15] Total figure of foreign ownership of condo/apt in Q1 2007 and Q1 2008

 

	Sale volume	Foreigner	% of Total
First Quarter 2007	7,937	1,038	13.07%
First Quarter 2008	2,668	450	16.86%

 

% drop in Total sale volume compared with Q1 2007	% drop in Foreigners’ purchase volume compared with Q1 2007	% increase in foreign ownership compared with Q1 2007
-66.39%	-56.65%	3.79%

 

 

While the study is inconclusive, in terms of percentage, it shows that for every willing Singaporean buyer, there are more willing foreign buyers. More foreigners are buying into the Singapore story than the locals. So the question is: ‘are we more discerning or are we missing the woods?’  Only history will tell. Maybe the local’s ‘bluff of real purchasing power’ is being called by the authorities when it introduced many recent measures to cool the market, such as the decisive withdrawal of deferred payment scheme etc. In fact, the private market is subdued and being shadowed by the fear of liquidity risks* - a fear which I call ‘the direct point of impact’ of the demand-side control.  But, at least some semblance of sanity is back into the market; and the market can poise itself for the next run.

*Explanation of Liquidity Risk is at Annex D

 

(E) Government Land Sale (GLS) Programme

 

(E.1) Poor showing at landed housing plot tender

 

The HDB which put up a landed housing parcel in Westwood Avenue at Jurong West for public tender decided not to award the site to the top bidder citing low bid price. The state tender drew only two bids, and a dismal top bid of $11.8 million - or just $77.80 per square foot (psf) – not even half of the $200-$250 partners had earlier estimated.

The response was a far cry from the URA land auction held in October last year where 12 sub-divided landed housing plots called Sembawang Greenvale near Sembawang Beach were snapped up at $37.09 million or about $285 psf of land area on average.

Phase Two comprising 11 land parcels for a total of 90 terrace houses has been launched recently.

The poor showing at the Westwood site could be due to the obscure location of the Westwood housing estate and the lack of natural attraction such as a beach, a lake or lagoon etc. Moreover, major developers have been sitting on the fence - waiting for clearer sign of recovery in the global economy.

 

(E.2) Yishun 99-year condo site attracted lukewarm four bids

 

A state tender for a 99-year condominium site at Yishun fronting Lower Seletar Reservoir and close to Singapore Orchid Country Club/Golf Course attracted four bids. The top bid was $213 million or $350 psf per plot ratio (ppr) from MCL Land which is almost 70% more than its closest rival at $127 million or $208 psf ppr by a development company controlled by the Wee family.

Frasers Centrepoint, Sim Lian Land and Cheung Kong Holdings unit Billion Rise all tried their luck with very low bid prices.

 

(E.3) West Coast condo site attracted 12 tenders

 

A seafront site at West Coast area, next to Blue Horizon condo, attracted 12 bids – the best showing at the GLS programme so far in the first quarter. The winning bid of $110.44 million or $305 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) was put in by Billion Rise, a company linked to Hong Kong based Cheung Kong Holdings.

For $305 psf ppr, the site is a good bargain. However, the generally low bids in this tender exercise betrayed the sense of cautiousness and restraint.

Nonetheless, the quality of the site on offer did the trick of pulling in the many usual suspects.  Besides a high plot ratio of 2.8 and its expansive sea views and the greenery of the West Coast Park, the site is also a short drive from the VivoCity shopping and entertainment complex.

 

There are three important factors in real estate investment andthey are ‘location, location, location’. The GLS programme serves as a barometer of market sentiment and developer’s mid-term confidence. Going by the response in March 2008, the GLS programme is near its endgame – or anti-climax, if you like. The effect of a slower US and global economy is pervading developers’ show flats across the nation. Performance of primary sale was dismal and two morale dampening news of the Kuwaiti withdrawal from an Option to buy 97 Goodwoods Residences and Bravo Building Construction’s inability to perform its contract to buy two prime en bloc sites did little to lift anyone’s spirit. For real estate agents, avoid the show rooms as they are not going to be an area of growth. Check out the list of top selling projects (both having TOP or about to have their TOP) in this booklet and concentrate your efforts at those projects (if you are specialising in private property segment). It’s time for real selling skills to flourish.

 

(F) Performance of HDB Resale Market

 

(F.1) HDB Resale Volume

 

In March 2008, the HDB resale volume rose by 106 units or 5.2% from the previous month to reach 2,150 transactions. It was an encouraging sign as the HDB resale volume has maintained at a healthy level of over 2,000 transactions per month. The larger heartland estates continue to take the lion share of the transactions with Woodlands enjoying the highest transactions volume since December 2007.

The demand for larger flats such as 5-room flats remains robust with 5-room flat taking up 26.47% of the total transactions as compared with 24.22% a month earlier.

 

(F.2) HDB Resale Prices

 

In terms of HDB resale prices, the price index for public flats rose 3.4% in the first quarter of 2008 over the preceding quarter. In the final quarter of last year, prices of HDB resale flats grew 5.7% quarter-on-quarter.

The market valuations for resale flats have generally risen and as such even if the cash-over-valuations are slightly lower than late last year, the total resale price will still be steady or higher.

Another reason contributing to strong price trend is the phenomenon of savvy en bloc sellers who, having cashed out of their old condos, are shying from the saturated high-end property segment, fearing the uncertain global financial market. Many of them are finding alternative, or perhaps temporary, housing in larger HDB flats so as to preserve cash in the interim before bargain hunting again after the expected correction in the high-end property segment.

While this group may not be big, they do help to ‘sprinkle some gold dust’ on the rosy picture of the HDB resale market.
 

 

Table [16] March 2008 HDB Resale Transactions

 

	3-room	4-room	5-room	E-Flats	Total
Ang Mo Kio	72	26	7	-	105
Bedok	49	35	25	4	113
Bishan	3	23	15	7	48
Bt Batok	42	48	14	6	110
Bt Merah	33	26	17	-	76
Bt Panjang	9	43	24	9	85
Bt Timah	1	1	1	2	5
Central Area	16	2	1	-	19
Choa Chu Kang	6	43	32	16	97
Clementi	27	16	7	2	52
Geylang/Aljunied	27	15	5	2	49
Hougang	23	58	32	18	131
Jurong East	29	24	12	7	72
Jurong West	36	71	49	6	162
Kallang Whampoa	19	24	16	1	60
Marine Parade	8	6	3	-	17
Pasir Ris	-	27	27	19	73
Punggol	-	15	36	2	53
Queenstown	54	19	15	5	93
Sembawang	-	22	25	4	51
Sengkang	-	31	64	5	100
Serangoon	18	19	8	7	52
Tampines	31	54	36	12	133
Toa Payoh	41	19	15	2	77
Woodlands	20	92	64	21	197
Yishun	49	47	19	5	120
Total	613	806	569	162	2150
	28.51%	37.49%	26.47%	7.53%

 

 

Table [17] February 2008 HDB Resale Transactions

 

	3-room	4-room	5-room	E-Flats	Total
Ang Mo Kio	62	26	9	1	98
Bedok	59	27	25	7	118
Bishan	4	25	10	5	44
Bt Batok	38	46	19	7	110
Bt Merah	39	26	14	0	79
Bt Panjang	15	28	25	5	73
Bt Timah	1	4	5	0	10
Central Area	10	6	0	0	16
Choa Chu Kang	1	40	28	9	78
Clementi	38	15	5	0	58
Geylang Aljunied	38	18	6	1	63
Hougang	20	43	20	13	96
Jurong East	21	10	9	4	44
Jurong West	27	70	43	11	151
Kallang Whampoa	42	18	10	1	71
Marine Parade	6	6	7	0	19
Pasir Ris	1	18	14	15	48
Punggol	0	13	31	5	49
Queenstown	54	11	8	1	74
Sembawang	0	17	25	3	45
Sengkang	0	35	47	9	91
Serangoon	11	25	7	5	48
Tampines	46	70	35	12	163
Toa Payoh	42	17	13	4	76
Woodlands	20	103	68	22	213
Yishun	40	51	12	6	109
Total	635 (31.1%)	768 (37.6%)	495 (24.22%)	146 (7.14%)	2044

 

 

Table [18] January 2008 HDB Resale Transactions

 

	3-room	4-room	5-room	E-Flats	Total
Ang Mo Kio	61	29	12	3	105
Bedok	58	26	25	7	116
Bishan	8	34	10	5	57
Bt Batok	39	53	12	13	117
Bt Merah	40	33	27	0	100
Bt Panjang	8	33	25	5	71
Bt Timah	1	3	0	1	5
Central Area	13	2	1	0	16
Choa Chu Kang	5	50	37	17	109
Clementi	27	17	10	3	57
Geylang Aljunied	35	19	6	4	64
Hougang	27	59	33	13	132
Jurong East	18	16	19	7	60
Jurong West	43	61	38	19	161
Kallang Whampoa	27	22	12	0	61
Marine Parade	13	9	9	0	31
Pasir Ris	0	21	28	27	76
Punggol	0	14	35	0	49
Queenstown	56	16	16	0	88
Sembawang	0	26	36	7	69
Sengkang	0	34	46	8	88
Serangoon	22	27	14	8	71
Tampines	37	58	48	17	160
Toa Payoh	51	21	13	3	88
Woodlands	30	87	67	16	200
Yishun	61	67	18	9	155
Total	680 (29.50%)	837 (36.30%)	597 (25.88%)	192 (8.32%)	2,306

 

Annex A

HDB imposes checklists on resale flats

 

From 1 May 2008, it will become mandatory for all housing agents handling HDB resale flat transactions to fill up the resale checklist before the transaction can be submitted to HDB for approval.

The checklists cover key policies and procedures that housing agents will need to advise resale flat buyers and sellers on before they commit to a transaction.

The objective of the checklist is to ensure that buyers and sellers are aware of the relevant HDB purchase and financing policies when buying/selling an HDB flat.

Under HDB's new initiative, housing agents will have to submit a completed resale checklist to HDB with a resale application. Resale applications that do not comply with this requirement will be rejected and there will be 'serious penalties' for false declarations.

Housing agents engaged by both sellers and buyers will have to go through a resale checklist with clients before an option to purchase (OTP) is granted or exercised.

Buyers and sellers who do not engage the services of housing agents need not submit a checklist.

The new resale checklist for housing agents engaged by buyers, for example, will ensure that buyers are aware of their rights as well as of financing matters. It will also highlight to them the fact that any form of ‘cash back’ arrangement, such as over or under declaration, is punishable by law.

Similarly, the checklist for sellers' housing agents will ensure prospective sellers understand the various eligibility rules.

 

Annex B

New HDB grant for singles living with parents

 

The government has announced a special grant package of $20,000 for single Singaporeans who buy a HDB resale flat and live there with their parents. As it is, regardless of who they live with, single citizens are entitled to only $11,000 in CPF housing grant, subject to eligibility criteria.

The objectives of the housing subsidy are to help Singaporeans cope with effect of inflation and encourage them to look after their parents. The new single grant is called the higher-tier Singles Grant, like the original single grant, it comes with strings attached as follows:

• must be aged 35 and above;

• must be first-time HDB buyers;

• must live in the flat with their parents for at least five years;

• must not earn more than $3,000 a month if they are buying alone.

Likewise, the parents cannot buy or own another HDB flat or invest in private property within this period. They will have to dispose of any property they own before they can qualify as co-occupiers in the subsidy application. The $20,000 grant is also subject to other HDB policies such as resale levy liability, but it can be used by singles buying flats under the Design, Build and Sell Scheme.

Like the other grants packages, the new grant can only be used for down payment on the flat or to reduce the loan quantum.

For individuals taking the Joint Singles Grant, which must have at least two singles or maximum of four singles, they must all share the property and may also share with sets of parents subject to a monthly household income ceiling of $8,000. They can get up to one singles grant and one higher-tier singles grant, or up to two singles grants or two higher-tier singles grants, subject to maximum of $40,000 in grant (no details were given yet).

 

Annex C

Bankruptcies sneak back despite good times

 

The root of bankruptcies can often be traced back to an economic boom. While the number of delinquencies may be relatively small, the number will suddenly expand when the economy slows down and job losses increase. At this moment, the delinquency rate for credit card holders has started to go up. The delinquents tend to be younger men or parents who acted as guarantors for their children.

The Singapore economy expanded 7.7% in 2007; the unemployment rate was at a decade’s low of 2.1% and job layoffs were at a 14-year-low with unionised firms paying out the fattest bonuses in 18 years. This is hardly a picture of gloom, but the problem is, people are living beyond their means.

According to the statistics from the Insolvency & Public Trustee's Office, in January this year, there were 292 petitions for bankruptcy and 215 bankruptcy orders were passed. In 2007, the average monthly bankruptcy petitions stood at 268 and the orders at 230.

This means that despite a much better harvest, the number of personal financial insolvency stays high. Creditors can petition for a person to be made bankrupt once the debt exceeds $10,000.

Deeper down the iceberg, the high absolute number of credit card delinquencies shows that many of them might have got carried away with the liberal and easily accessible credits. In fact, according to data from the Credit Bureau (Singapore) Pte Ltd (CBS), the number of delinquent credit card holders began rising steadily from July last year.

In December, there were 14,379 delinquent credit card holders representing a delinquency rate of 1.42% against 11,346 or 1.16% in July. CBS’ record also shows that a majority of those having payment problems are between 21 and 44 years old, and men make up almost 70%. Some 80% have credit cards with at least two banks. In most cases, the delinquent owes less than $5,000.

 

Annex D

Explaining liquidity risk

 

Liquidity is the ability to convert an asset to cash while preserving capital; or simply put, speed in capital recovery.

Liquidity risk arises from situations in which a property seller very keen in disposing of his property cannot do it because no buyers in the market are willing to buy at the current asking price. Since the market situation is uncertain, liquidity risk becomes particularly important to buyers who are about to make a purchase and to property sellers who are currently hold on to their properties.

In substance, liquidity risk is financial risk due to uncertain liquidity. During the 2007 property boom, real estate investments could turn out to be very liquid when investors are able to ‘flip’ properties within a matter of days the purchase for up to a few hundred thousand dollars more. As such, a ‘wealth effect’ was created that lured more speculators into the market to repeat the success of others.

However, buyers who bought over properties this way are now holding on to ‘overpriced’ items. With the depleting of the real estate bubble following the revelation of the US subprime crisis and the ensuing uncertainties in the global financial market, such liquidity is virtually gone, hence the liquidity risk in today’s market.

 

Case Study

Ascertaining “Most Sellable Projects”

 

A case study has been done to ascertain the ‘Most Sellable’ projects in Singapore. In this month’s report, all the projects in the Core Central Region which were active with sales are laid out in comparison. See the tables below:

 

Secondary Sale Market Performance (From July 2007 to March 2008) based on caveats lodged

 

District	Project	Unit Sold	Price range		Psf range
1	Emerald Garden	15	$1.2m	$2.18m	1,400	1,737
1	Marina Bay Residences	45	$1.1m	$16.1m	1,458	3,600
1	The Clift	31	-	-	-	-
1	The Riverside Piazza	5	-	-	-	-
1	The Sail at Marina Bay	149	$463K	$6.33m	769	3,001

 

District	Project	Unit Sold	Price range		Psf range
2	Craig Place	8	$555k	$886k	$829	$1,268
2	International Plaza	18	$750k	$1,840m	$829	$1,366
2	Lumiere	6	$917k	$1,829m	$1,550	$1,931
2	Icon	201
2	Spottiswoode Park	17	$515k	$925k	$364	$676
2	The Arris	4	$1.00m	$1.29m	$1,262	$1,427
2	The Beacon	16	$518k	$1.16m	-	-

 

District	Project	Unit Sold	Price range		Psf range
4	Faber Lodge	1	$1.2m	-	$ 1,093	-
4	Harbourside Apt	1	$828K	-	$  625	-
4	Caribbean	105	$1.13m	$4m	$854	$1,724
4	Harbour View Tower	12	$750K	$1.55m	$ 288	$1,133
4	Harbourlights	4	$980K	$1.48m	$1,144	$ 1,265
4	Marina Collection	10	$4.9m	$12.67m	-	-
4	Mt Faber Lodge	3	$1.48m	$3.42m	$894	$1,261
4	Pender Court (en bloc)	14	$80m	-	$45,878	$48,576
4	Reflections	48	$1.12m	$10.36m	$1,345	$2,489
4	Telok Blangah House	8	$2.04m	$4.67m	$706	$1,200
4	Teresa Ville	3	$1.25m	$2.22m	$922	$1,152
4	The Azure	20	$1.6m	$7.2m	$906	$2,400
4	The Berth by the Cove	24	$2.05m	$5.55m	$1,300	$2,200
4	The Coast	20	$3.8m	$11.46m	$1,639	$2,600
4	The Oceanfront	74	$1.42m	$8.16m	$1,168	$2,799
4	The Pearl at Mount Faber	23	$1.18m	$2.4m	$807	$1,115

 

District	Project	Unit Sold	Price range		Psf range
9	35 Kim Yam Rd	1	$650K	-	$1,184	-
9	28 Oxley Garden	1	$1.9m	-	$1,110	-
9	154A Emerald Hill Rd	1	$1.53m	-	$1,304	-
9	88 Sophia Rd	1	$670K	-	$943	-
9	2C Mt Emily Rd	1	$1.9m	-	$1,534	-
9	2RVG	4	$1.08m	$1.5m	$1,575	$1,695
9	8 @ Mt Sophia (recently launched)	60	$583K	$3.3m	$562	$1,583
9	Aspen Height	37	$1.02m	$2.46m	$1,136	$1,555
9	Astoria Apt	1	$1.9m	-	$1,090	-
9	Cairnhill Circle	1	2.41m	-	$2,001	-

9	Cairnhill Crest	18	$1.63m	$5.51m	$2,000	$2,802
9	Cairnhill Plaza	2	$3.95m	$4.6m	$1,631	$1,723
9	Cairnhill Residences	6	$2.17m	$3.05m	$1,757	$2,464
9	Casa Cairnhill	1	$2.3m	-	$1,464	-
9	Casa Sophia	1	$630K	-	$547	-
9	Cavenagh Court	1	$2.35m	-	$1,292	-
9	Cavenagh Gdn	2	$1.68m	$1.78m	$1,084	$1,148
9	Cavenagh Hse	1	$1.8m	-	$1,122	-
9	Centrepoint Apt	7	$1m	$1.6m	$1,302	$1,755
9	Casa Novacrest	4	$1.7m	$1.95m	$1,087	$1,232
9	Cityvale	1	$790K	-	$953	-
9	Cityvista Residences	4	$5.11m	$7.94m	$2,413	$2,828
9	Claremont	5	$1.53m	$2.7m	$1,019	$1,349
9	Claymore Plaza	2	$1.73m	$1.88m	$2,172	$2,360
9	Dynasty Gdn	1	$80m	-	$33,179	-
9	Emerald Mans	1	$148m	-	$2,015	-
9	Estilo	1	$909K	-	$1,594	-
9	Euro-Asia Court	3	$1.3m	$2.5m	$1,194	$1,508
9	Gambier Court	1	$1.31m	-	$1,127	-
9	Grangeford Apt	1	$2.9m	-	$1,653	-
9	Helios Residences	10	$3.67m	$6.16m	$2,870	$3,219
9	High Point	2	$5.5m	$5.7m	$1,879	$1,947
9	Hilltops	1	$6.94m	-	$3,818	-
9	Hock Mans	1	$1.27m	-	$790	-

9	Kim Yam Ht	4	$1.4m	$1.78m	$1,148	$1,332
9	La Crystal	6	$930K	$1.7m	$1,250	$1,463
9	Langston Ville	7	$418K	$1.1m	$466	$1,175
9	Le Wilkie	2	$1.18m	$1.38m	$1,145	$1,179
9	Leonie Gdn	7	$2m	$4.5m	$1,140	$1,754
9	Leonie Studio	16	$671K	$1.84m	$974	$2,090
9	Leonie Tower	1	$9.8m	-	$1,570	-
9	Lloyd Mans	1	$1.38m	-	-	-
9	Lucky Plaza	4	$1.5m	$3.58m	$1,720	$2,310
9	Mackenzie 138	1	$615K	-	$1,270	-
9	Mackenzie 88	23	$566K	$1.02m	$1,207	$1,438
9	Mackenzie Mans	5	$972K	$995K	$798	$884
9	Martin Edge	3	$600K	$603K	$1,032	$1,077
9	Mirage Tower	14	$765K	$2.18m	$1,250	$1,595
9	Mt Sophia Suites	6	$632K	$855K	$1,647	$1,738
9	Nomu	1	$2.17m	-	-	-
9	One Oxley Rise	6	$1.26m	$1.51m	$1,293	$1,971
9	Orchard Scotts	1	$5.75m	-	$2,520	-
9	Orchard Tower	1	$3.23m	-	$1,640	-
9	Pacific Mans	2	$1.8m	$2.02m	$1,178	$1,322
9	Parc Emily	33	$501K	$1.9m	$764	$1,459
9	Paterson Residence	11	$1.7m	12.03m	$2,050	$2,500
9	Paterson Suites	1	$5.51m	-	$3,204	-
9	Peace Mans	1	$1.4m	-	$565	-
9	Residences at 338A	3	$1.58m	$1.76m	$1,376	$1,579
9	Rhapsody on Mt  E	3	$1.88m	$3.87m	$1,771	$2,324
9	Richmond Park	4	$2.7m	$3.48m	$2,620	$2,763
9	Rio Gdn	1	$620K	-	$655	-
9	Ritz Residences	1	$3.02m	-	-	-
9	River Valley Court	1	$1.52m	-	$1,349	-
9	Rivergate	43	$1.12m	$7.65m	$1,063	$2,560
9	Riveria Point	4	$1.38m	$1.58m	$1,171	$1,257
9	Robertson 100	17	$960K	$1.8m	$1,153	$1,475
9	Robertson Blue	4	$2.1m	$3.1m	$1,579	$1,882
9	Sam Kiang Mans	1	$1.65m	-	$1,369	-

9	Scotts 28	2	$1.82m	$3.56m	$1,053	$2,150
9	Scotts Highpark	7	$5.81m	$9.97m	$1,795	$2,400
9	Scotts SQ	35	$2.37m	$5.87m	$3,638	$4,701
9	Skypark	5	$1.64m	$6.5m	$1,584	$3,001
9	St Thomas Court	1	$1.7m	-	$1,519	-
9	St Thomas Mans	1	$1.1m	-	$1,584	-
9	St Thomas Suites	6	$3.28m	$8.38m	$1,632	$2,231
9	The Abode at Devonshire	1	$1.85m	-	$1,653	-
9	The Beaumont	3	$2.3m	$2.45m	$1,661	$2,323
9	Casa Novacrest	4	$1.7m	$1.95m	$1,087	$1,232
9	The Claymore	1	$8.55m	-	$3,190	-
9	The Cosmopolitan	65	$1.13m	$3.99m	$972	$2,380
9	The Edge on Carnhill	5	$4.05m	$4.88m	$1,891	$2,280
9	The Grangeford (en bloc)	147	$625m		$356,220	$532,696
9	The Imperial	8	$2m	$4.1m	$1,418	$2,050
9	The Inspira	11	$1.01m	$1.72m	$1,079	$1,431
9	The Light at Cairnhill	2	$3m	$3.64m	$2,382	$2,400
9	The Lumos	6	$2.78m	$8.43m	$3,207	$3,984
9	The Marq	6	$10.86m	$26.96m	$3,773	$4,379
9	The Metz	39	$770K	$3.81m	$1,226	$2,600
9	The Morningside	1	$3.28m	-	$1,360	-
9	The Paterson	11	$2.35m	$5.05m	$1,916	$2,295
9	The Paterson Edge	2	$2.1m	$2.42m	$2,400	$2,501
9	The Pier at Robertson	26	$1.05m	$3.75m	$1,548	$2,151
9	The Quayside	8	$1.38m	$2.25m	$1,148	$1,463
9	The Regalia	5	$1.68m	1.92m	$1,323	$1,538
9	The Ritz-Carlton Res.	1	$12.78m	-	-	-
9	The Suites at Central	11	$1.15m	$3.98m	$1,346	$2,426
9	The Tate Residences	12	$4.3m	$11.30m	$1,762	$3,500
9	The Trillium	15	$2.45m	$5.3m	$1,530	$2,218
9	T'HSE Apt	5	$1.7m	$2m	$718	$845
9	Tiara	9	$1.34m	$2.7m	$1,500	$1,742
9	Tribeca	8	$1.72m	$3.48m	$1,497	$1,974
9	UE SQ	25	$650K	$3.12m	$641	$1,501
9	Urbana	18	$970K	$5.55m	$959	$2,410
9	Vida	3	$986K	$1.94m	$2,098	$2,260
9	Visioncrest	51	$1.03m	$5.42m	$1,133	$2,700

9	Waterford Residence	4	$1.22m	$1.9m	$1,255	$1,400
9	Watermark Robertson C	41	$742K	$3.58m	$812	$1,780
9	Welkin Mans	15	$120.31m	-	$63,509	-
9	Wharton Vale	3	$750K	$780K	$1,201	$1,249
9	Wilkie 48	2	$880K	$915K	$985	$1,076
9	Wilkie 80	25	$631K	$1.38m	$1,376	$1,630
9	Wilkie 87	1	$1.65m	-	$1,288	-
9	Wilkie Mans	1	$853K	-	$1,723	-
9	Wilkie Regency	2	$965K	$988K	$1,135	$ 1,162
9	Wilkie Studio	4	$1.28m	$2.36m	$1,456	$1,861
9	Wilkie Vale	1	$1.05m	-	$912	-
9	Yong Ann Park	5	$3.15m	$5.35m	$1,491	$1,734
9	T'HSE Apt	5	$1.7m	$2m	$718	$845

 

District	Project	Unit Sold	Price range		Psf range
10	48 Shanghai Rd	5	$2.5m	-	1,624	1,659
10	423B River Valley Rd	1	$898K	-	-	-
10	107 Jervois Rd	1	$1.09m	-	1,069	-
10	38 Draycott Dr	3	$2m	$3.2m	1,753	2,219
10	35 Jln Lim Tai See	1	$3.63m	-	975	-
10	415A River Valley Rd	1	$785K	-	-	-
10	429B River Valley Rd	1	$950K	-	-	-
10	7 Draycott Dr	2	$3.76m	$7m	2,266	2,500
10	8 Napier	17	$2.48m	$7.4m	-	-
10	9 Holland Hill	4	$1.58m	$1.83	1,067	1,203
10	Allsworth Park	7	$1.14m	$2.6m	1,103	1,335
10	Alocassia Apt	1	$13.288m	-	984	-
10	Anderson Green	2	$106.52m	-	2,892	2,889
10	Ardmore II	33	$4.14m	$7.28m	2,049	3,599

10	Ardmore Park	16	$7.1m	$20.5m	2,345	3,501
10	Astrid Meadows	5	$1.8m	$4.3m	1,306	1,631
10	Astridville	2	$2m	$2.53m	819	1,040
10	Avalon	7	$1.94m	$3.82m	1,671	1,762
10	Balmoral 8	3	$2.9m	$3.43m	1,522	1,800
10	Balmoral Gate	3	$850K	$1.7m	541	1,338
10	Balmoral Green	1	$1.92m	-	1,802	-
10	Balmoral Hills	5	$1.81m	$3.86m	1,308	1,900
10	Balmoral HT	2	$1.07m	$3.08m	1,396	1,949
10	Balmoral Plaza	2	$2.3m	$2.37m	1,042	1,200
10	Balmoral Point	1	$3.78m	-	1,494	-
10	Balmoral Residences	5	$3m	$3.2m	1,345	1,793
10	Ban Guan Park	8	$1.6m	$2.2m	1,327	2,246
10	Beaverton Court	1	$4.3m	-	1,378	-
10	Belmond Green	10	$1.52m	$3m	1,222	1,903
10	Beverly Hill	3	$7.95m	$8.62m	2,104	2,282
10	Botanic Garden Mans	2	$1.92m	$2.32m	1,372	1,849
10	Botanic Garden View	2	$2.03m	$2.32m	1,440	1,849
10	Casa Jervois	5	$1.43m	$2.02m	1,165	1,377
10	Casabella	5	$1.55m	$1.95m	1,333	1,440
10	Casabella @ Duchess	1	$1.711m	-	1,370	-
10	Charleston	2	$1.25m	$1.54m	1,041	1,280
10	Charming Garden	1	$2.45m	-	1,363	-
10	Chateau Le Fame	1	$1.8m	-	862	-
10	Chatelet	2	$1.26m	$1.8m	1,138	1,295
10	Chatsworth Court	1	$7m	-	2,118	-
10	Chelsea Garden	2	$4.65m	$5.81m	1,854	2,071
10	Chiverton	2	$1.48m	$1.86m	868	1,146
10	Cliften	4	$1.42m	$1.6m	1,309	1,436
10	Corona Ville	3	$1.27m	$1.4m	831	1,436
10	Crystal Court	1	$1.1m	-	992	-
10	Crystal Tower	1	$3.36m	-	1,242	-
10	Cuscaden Residences	9	$2.5m	$5.19m	2,020	2,716
10	Cuscaden Royale	5	$1.79m	$4.25m	1,914	2,182
10	D'Dalvey	1	$1.9m	-	929	-
10	De Lente	1	$920K	-	1,239	-
10	D'Grove Villas	1	$5.3m	-	1,962	-
10	DLV	3	$1.18m	$2.16m	1,236	1,418
10	Draycott Eight	8	$3.1m	$8.5m	2,176	2,752

10	Duchess Crest	68	$720K	$3.01m	345	1,323
10	Duchess Manor	9	$1.03m	$2.02m	722	1,482
10	Duchess Residences	2	$2.66m	$5.77m	1,823	1,930
10	Duet	2	$2.3m	$2.7m	1,319	1,548
10	Dynasty Court Two	1	$1.18m	-	1,034	-
10	Dynasty Garden	18	$80m	-	31,228	40,613
10	Ewe Boon Regent	1	$1.4m	-	1,341	-
10	Fairlodge	1	$1.61m	-	850	-
10	Fifth Ave CDO	2	$3.3m	$3.33m	1,488	1,510
10	Four Seasons Park	6	$6.1m	$$8.65m	2,699	3,010
10	Gallop Gables	3	$1.78m	$3.4m	1,320	1,654
10	Gardenville	5	$3.44m	$3.9m	1,954	2,144
10	Gisborne Light	1	$1.42m	-	1,147	-
10	Glentrees	7	$1.5m	$2.7m	1,115	1,456
10	Grange Court	2	$72.8m	-	13,608	19,834
10	Grange Residences	12	$6m	$$7.9m	2,323	2,791
10	Holland Hill Park	6	$1.8m	$2.1m	1,051	1,299
10	Holland Mews	1	$2.75m	-	1,092	-
10	Holland Peak	11	$650K	$3.18m	1,023	1,334
10	Hollandswood Court	2	$1.38m	-	648	-
10	Holt Residences	6	$2.75m	$4.15m	1,403	1,605
10	Hoot Kiam Mans	1	$750K	-	617	-
10	Jervois Grove	2	$1.03m	$1.63m	1,171	1,236
10	Jervois Jade	3	$1.18m	$1.38m	789	928
10	Jervois Lodge	6	$1.58m	$1.8m	1,145	1,446
10	Jervois Regency	7	$1.38m	$1.92m	757	1,600
10	Jewel of Balmoral	2	$2.22m	$2.28m	1,651	1,701
10	Kasturina Lodge	5	$880K	$1.35m	1,167	1,274
10	Kellock Lodge	4	$888K	$950K	994	1,063
10	Kim Lin Mans	3	$7.14m	$8.36m	3,319	3,886
10	King's 8	1	$4.9m	-	910	-
10	Kum Hing Court	1	$3.5m	-	2,153	-
10	Latitude	2	$3.33m	$5.40m	2,515	-
10	Leedon 2	2	$1.4m	$1.5m	1,263	1,353
10	Lien Tower	1	$5.8m	-	1,149	-
10	Lutheran Tower	1	$1.27m	-	663	-
10	Manhattan Mans	2	$3.6m	$4.28m	1,639	1,949
10	Martina Mans	1	$3.17m	-	1,300	-

10	Melrose Park	5	$1.95m	$6.15m	1,284	1,611
10	Mill Point	8	$700K	$1.47m	1,327	1,593
10	Montview	19	$1.04m	$2.26m	720	1,330
10	Mutiara Crest	2	$1.5m	$1.6m	1,124	1,199
10	Mutiara View	7	$1.3m	$1.52m	1,118	1,308
10	Nassim 9	1	$6.8m	-	2,537	-
10	Nassim Jade	1	$6.6m	-	2,198	-
10	Nassim Mans	2	$7m	$8.28m	2,051	2,382
10	Nathan Place	2	$1.2m	$1.76m	1,467	1,639
10	Olina Lodge	1	$1.71m	-	1,052	-
10	One Jervois	31	$795K	$3.91m	973	1,625
10	One Tree Hill Mans	1	$1.78m	-	1,102	-
10	One Tree Hill Residences	13	$1.63m	$4.72m	209	2,350
10	Orange Grove Residences	1	$7.38m	-	2,350	-
10	Orchard Bel-Air	1	$3.35m	-	1,044	-
10	Orion	10	$2.19m	$14.2m	1,335	3,218
10	Palm Spring	13	$1.3m	$3.8m	1,175	1,530
10	Parc Stevens	2	$3.2m	$4.29m	1,591	1,858
10	Parkview Eclat	4	$9.04m	$11.70m	3,360	3,600
10	Pine Tree CDO	2	$1.73m	$1.82m	1,404	1,500
10	Pinewood Garden	2	$1.78m	$2.75m	1,430	1,670
10	Portofino	2	$1.13m	$42.78m	1,450	1,450
10	Promises Garden	27	$71.20m	-	54,218	88,195
10	Proximo	4	$1.42m	$1.61m	1,276	1,443
10	Queensberry Lodge	1	$1.98m	-	1,069	-
10	Quinterra	1	$1.01m	-	860	-
10	Regency Lodge	2	$1.42m	$1.65	1,109	1,299
10	Regency Park	9	$3.88m	$6.5m	1,606	1,968
10	Rich Mans	2	$1.9m	$1.98m	1,076	1,260
10	Ridgewood	3	$2m	$2.2m	1,239	1,363
10	Rising Suites	2	$1.03m	$2.16m	1,428	1,514
10	Robin Regalia	3	$1.1m	$1.17m	929	1,277
10	Sarkies Court	1	$34m	-	2,189	-

 

10	Shanghai One	6	$1.06m	$1.49m	1,207	1,400
10	Sheares Ville	7	$1.8m	$5.05	1,074	1,439
10	Sixth Ave Ville	3	$1.5m	$2.85m	1,086	1,183
10	Sommerville Grandeur	1	$2.47m	-	1,350	-
10	Sommerville Park	18	$936K	$3.28m	1,129	1,684
10	Spanish Village	1	$2.57m	-	1,683	-
10	Spring Grove	18	$1.4m	$2.92m	839	1,792
10	St Martin Residences	6	$1.48m	$4.75m	1,651	2,500
10	St Martin's Apt	2	$1.6m	$19.5m	1,733	2,080
10	St Regis Residences	14	$4.91m	$12.99m	2,299	3,654
10	Stevens Loft	1	$1.1m	-	1,597	-
10	Studio 3	10	$732K	$1.58m	1,149	1,803
10	Sui Generis	8	$3.41m	$5.47m	2,171	2,583
10	Sylvan Lodge	4	$866k	$1.8m	391	1,308
10	Tanglin Park	11	$900K	$3.23m	565	2,285
10	Tanglin Regency	21	$670K	$1.45m	853	1,075
10	Tanglin Residences	3	$2.3m	$5.4m	2,035	2,736
10	The Arc at Draycott	10	$1.76m	$5.57m	1,552	3,000
10	The Aspine (en bloc)	22	$138m	-	66,428	84,345
10	The Aston	11	$775K	$1.26m	1,040	1,601
10	The Balmoral	1	$4.4m	-	1,603	-
10	The Balmoral Spring	2	1.68m	$1.82m	1,509	1,630
10	The Boulevard Residences	3	$6.45m	$8m	3,170	3,932
10	The Capri	2	$1.08m	$1.2m	1,056	1,247
10	The Cornwall	11	$1.13m	$3.3m	1,248	1,713
10	The Draycott	3	$4.66m	$6m	1,774	2,275
10	The Element@ Stevens	1	$2.43m	-	1,525	-
10	The Equatorial	7	$2m	$3.2m	1,166	1,680
10	The Fernhill	4	$1.5m	$3.66m	1,410	2,284
10	The Ford @ Holland	11	$622K	$2.22m	1,231	1,601
10	The Grange	24	$2.71m	$6.42m	1,541	2,750
10	The Hermitage	1	$965K	-	1,135	-
10	The Horizon	1	$2m	-	1,281	-
10	The Legacy	5	$1.15m	$3.38m	975	1,299
10	The Legend	14	$1m	$3.7m	1,216	1,616
10	The Levelz	7	$800K	$1.49m	1,077	1,548
10	The Loft	3	$1.62m	$4.2m	1,132	2,300
10	The Marbella	10	$1.3m	$4m	1,215	1,630
10	The Merasaga	5	$1.2m	$1.82m	1,267	1,357
10	The Montana	2	$1.32m	$1.38m	1,191	1,474
10	The Orange Grove	1	$15.52m	-	2,828	-
10	The Orchard Residences	9	$5.37m	$12.99m	2,922	3,904
10	The Princeton	2	$1.2m	$1.27m	1,104	1,168
10	The Serenade @ Holland	11	$1.03m	$2.25m	845	1,181
10	The Sierra	2	$625K	$750K	880	1,124
10	The Sixth Ave Residences	23	$1.23m	$17.628m	883	12,997
10	The Solitaire	3	$2.22m	$3.26m	1,796	2,343

10	The Tessarina	41	$1.13m	$4.95m	987	1,360
10	The Tresor	7	$861K	$3.46m	870	879
10	The Twins	1	$3.2m	-	1,429	-
10	The Wilshire	1	$2.75m	-	1,252	-
10	Three Three Robin	3	$3m	$3.48m	1,771	2,195
10	Tulip Garden (en bloc)	97	$516m	-	151,223	303,402
10	Urban Edge @ Holland V	6	$908K	$2.83m	1,055	1,246
10	Valley Park	41	$900K	$5m	1,112	1,600
10	Ventuno Balmoral	1	$2.29m	-	-	-
10	Villa Azura	6	$1.31m	$1.9m	959	1,034
10	Village Tower	1	$3.6m	-	1,376	-
10	Viz at Holland	10	$437K	$1.58m	739	1,268
10	Warner Court	2	$1.6m	$1.6m	1,260	1,339
10	Waterfall Garden	10	$1.6m	$4.06m	1,187	1,850
10	Westwood Apt (en bloc)	70	$435M	-	65,605	153,660
10	Woollerton Park	2	$3.7m	-	1,570	-
10	Yee Fu Building	1	$902K	-	655	-
10	Zenith	13	$756K	$1.89m	1,605	1,751

 

District	Project	Unit Sold	Price range		Psf range
11	165E Moulmein Rd	1	$1.05m	-	-	-
11	28 Shelford Rd	1	$1m	-	1,191	-
11	42C Eng Neo Ave	1	$1.08m	-	772	-
11	108 Shrewsbury Rd	2	$800k	-	576	-
11	1 Moulmein Rise	10	$1.56m	$1.85m	1,260	1,482
11	Adam Park	7	$980K	$2.26m	808	1,173
11	Adam Place	1	$755K	-	825	-
11	Akyab Apt	1	$480K	-	203	-
11	Alegria	1	$2.03m	-	1,109	-
11	Amaninda	7	$680K	$1.59m	1,108	1,273
11	Amaryllis Ville	17	$838K	$3mj	1,112	1,514
11	Apleton View	6	$1.2m	$1.5m	1,059	1,310
11	Bassein Court	1	$1.13m	-	808
11	Birmingham Mans	4	$576K	$1.63m	541	1,032
11	Buckley 18	1	$2.04m	-	-	-
11	Chancery Esquire	2	$1.52m	$2.38m	1,177	1,382
11	Chancery Ville (en bloc)	3	$27.33m	-	14,848	15,869
11	City Edge	5	$1.1m	$1.68m	1,285	1,475
11	Derbyshire Ht	2	$1m	$1.23m	755	935
11	D'Evelyn	2	$1.38m	$1.6m	1,269	1,472
11	Dunearn Court	1	$1.35m	-	922	-
11	Dunearn Garden	1	$1.8m	-	1,079	-
11	Dunearn Lodge	4	$698K	$850K	721	877
11	Eng Aun Mans	3	$560K	$700K	642	985
11	Euro-Asia View	5	$705K	$1.9m	900	1,117
11	Gilstead 38	2	$1.3m	$2.26m	1,327	890
11	Gilstead Mans	1	$1.81m	-	1,124	-
11	Gloucester Mans	4	$850K	$1.23m	1,042	1,475
11	Grand Tower	1	$1.8m	-	961	-
11	Greendale Court	2	$1.4m	$1.45m	747	821
11	Hill Park	21	$90m	-	46,711	47,778
11	Hillcrest Ardadia	13	$620K	$2.85m	823	1,038
11	Hillcrest Park	1	$1.91m	-	718	-
11	Hillcrest Villa (recently launched)	113	$2.48m	$3.08m	798	999
11	Iridium	7	$983K	$3.1m	761	1,370
11	Kellett Court	4	$1.2m	$1.31m	885	989
11	Kheam Hock Garden	1	$1.52m	-	1,121	-
11	La Maison	1	$1.34m	-	1,055	-
11	La Suisse	5	$1.45m	$2m	669	953
11	La Suisse II	3	$1.37m	$2.09m	815	981
11	Lornie 18	2	$5.34m	$5.42m	1,150	1,150
11	Lucida	3	$1.01m	$1.05m	1,632	1,698
11	M21	10	$994K	$4.18m	1,369	1,414
11	Mandalay HT	3	$720K	$1.28m	880	1,062
11	Mandalay Tower	3	$1.78m	$1.88m	710	750
11	Mandale HT	11	$605K	$1.98m	764	1,051

11	Medge	16	$341K	$896K	618	1,296
11	Monarchy Apt	1	$860K	-	707	-
11	Montebleu	16	$534K	$1.62m	882	1,253
11	Moulmein Court	1	$760K	-	461	-
11	Newton 18	7	$810K	$1.48m	1,320	1,635
11	Newton Euro-Asia	2	$1.5m	$2.39m	1,267	1,553
11	Newton One	12	$1.82m	$4.46m	931	2,000
11	Newton Suites	25	$759K	$2.41m	953	1,981
11	Nineteen Shelford Rd	15	$480K	$1.82m	978	1,204
11	Novelis	3	$1.25m	$1.82m	-	-
11	Novena Court	7	$650K	$790K	839	1,045
11	Novena Lodge	4	$870K	$1m	918	1,044
11	Novena Suites	7	$888K	$1.23m	1,267	1,551
11	Orchid Apt	2	$1.32m	$1.35m	965	973
11	Park Infinia at Wee Nam	34	$856K	$3.4m	820	1,700
11	Pasadena	2	$1.25m	$1.85m	685	867
11	Pavilion 11	20	$884K	$5m	801	1,280
11	Peppermint Grove	2	$760K	$950K	959	1,441
11	Residences @ Evelyn	25	$1.6m	$6.22m	1,257	2,049
11	Rosevale	4	$1.82m	$1.93m	1,262	1,338
11	Setia Residences	1	$7.85m	-	2,345	-
11	Shelford Green	1	$1.85m	-	1,017	-
11	Shelford Regency	2	$1.1m	$1.48m	1,032	1,083
11	Shelford View	1	$3.5m	-	1,301	-
11	Sky @ Eleven	44	$1.81m	$8.32	826	1,604
11	Soleil @ Sinaran	28	$658K	$3mj	1,132	1,742
11	Strata	4	$650K	$1.21m	1,285	1,621
11	Suffolk Premier	8	$795K	$1.35m	777	1,274
11	Suites @ Surrey	2	$778K	$1.25m	872	1,350
11	Tan Tong Meng Tower	1	$2.7m	-	833	-
11	Ten @ Suffolk	2	$700K	$1.38m	625	1,269
11	The Ansley	18	$1.03m	$1.63m	956	1,262
11	The Arcadia	12	$3.4m	$7.5m	900	1,158
11	The Armadale	2	$880K	$1.19m	1,298	1,365
11	The Axis	8	$404K	$1m	794	2,084
11	The Hillpark	5	$90m	-	46,711	47,778
11	The Huntington	2	$1.1m	$1.25m	1,135	1,197
11	The Linc	4	$1.31m	$1.6m	1,148	1,249
11	The Lincoln Modern	4	$1.21m	$2.3m	1,100	1,631
11	The Shelford	7	$600K	$4.15m	413	1,721
11	The Spinnaker	2	$1.35m	$1.48m	1,037	1,074
11	The Springs	7	$1m	$1.4m	1,010	1,414
11	The Trevose	22	$930K	$3.5m	617	1,190
11	Thomson 800	20	$1.36m	$3m	518	1,292
11	Thomson Euro-Asia	12	$1.25m	$1.9m	1,200	1,471
11	Thomson Vale	1	$1.01m	-	977	-
11	Trevose park	4	$1.5m	$2.44m	1,143	1,435
11	Ultra Mans	1	$1.75m	-	1,091	-
11	Villa Chancerita	1	$2.2m	-	1,239	-
11	Villa Chancery	1	$3.6m	-	1,354	-

 

Source of statistics: SISVRealin

 

The above transaction statistics are based on caveats lodge with the Singapore Land Authority (SLA). However, caution is needed while interpreting the data as caveat lodgement is not compulsory. As such, some property owners may not lodge caveats until they take a mortgage loan [and the mortgagees would lodge caveats to protect their interests on the mortgages].

The context of this study is important. While it was done initially in an attempt to ascertain the ‘Most Sellable’ projects in town, it turns out that the lists can be used to ascertain the ‘Not Sellable’ projects and ‘Difficult to Sell’ project. 

 

1. Sellability Checklist

 

In other words, the above information can indeed act as a ‘Sellability Checklist’ for listing agents in general. For example, if the name of the project in which an agent’s listing is located is not in this list, it belongs to the ‘Not Sellable’ category. If the name of the project is in this list but not being highlight, the agent’s listing may be ‘Difficult to Sell’, for one reason or another.

The study uncovered 23 most sellable projects in the Core Central Region in the past six months and they may remain ‘sellable’ for some time. However, having said that, readers should approach the data with caution because the ‘quantity’ of transactions is just one of the few critical success factors which include location, supply/demand situation in the specific location which has a direct impact on the asking price. The project may sell due to the novelty factor for the time being or because the particular market segment has many ‘flipping’ going on; but the unique factors may change over time due to extrinsic factors such market volatility or change in buyer’s taste or perception. Therefore, agents must continue to keep their pulse very close to the ground and continue to update on the basics of real estate.

Though the findings are at best inconclusive, one thing is for sure - if a project has ‘less than 10 transactions’ in half a year, it must definitely belong to the category of ‘difficult to sell’.

 

The Newton Law of Motion also applies to real estate sales, i.e. a project which is ‘sellable’ remains ‘sellable’ until another more ‘sellable’ project comes along. The ‘sellability’ factors such as the location (e.g. near resort, MRT, CBD etc); earning capability (in terms of rental income), prestige (such as sea fronting or luxury level etc) determine whether a property is a ‘winner’. In this time of great uncertainties, agents should advise their buyers to go for ‘sure winners’. Who are the ‘sure winners’? Refer to the lists again.

 

 

Buy, Sell, Rent, Invest, In Singapore

 

Mindy Yong 杨雯诗

CEA Registration Number : R021232Z

Tel: (+65) 91002985
Fax: (+65) 64021826

mindy@mindyyong.com

 

KF Property Network Pte Ltd
CEA Licence Number : L3008430D